Tomorrow there will be a Special Election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District to replace former Congressman Tim Murphy, a Republican who resigned in October after reports came to light that he pressured a woman he was having an affair with to have an abortion. Here's what we'll be watching. "It would mark an extraordinary swing from Trump's almost 20-point victory here in 2016 if he could hold on to win". For example, a Gravis poll taken at the beginning of March showed Saccone with a two-point lead in the race while an Emerson poll showed Lamb leading by three points.
A new Monmouth University poll found that, if there's a surge in Democratic voter turnout on Tuesday, Lamb garners a majority of the vote with 51 percent, compared to Saccone's 45 percent. The survey has a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.
"I hope [voters] judge it on the merits of my background and experience and qualifications", Trump told ABC News' Nightline last month.
Lamb keeps to party orthodoxy on unions.
Saccone has frustrated national Republicans with his lackluster fundraising, which has forced outside groups like Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee to dump more than $10 million into the district.
His GOP opponent Saccone, on the other hand, has called himself "Trump before Trump was Trump".
The 33-year-old Lamb, a Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor, has crystallized the debate over whether a younger, charismatic Democrat appealing to win back traditionally Democratic voters can overcome Republican party loyalty in a GOP-leaning district at a time when Trump remains a divisive figure.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 18th, but it votes Republican.More news: Judge says New Hampshire Powerball victor can keep identity private
Is trade a winning issue? He also enthusiastically supports President Donald Trump.
(Trafford) - President Donald Trump invoked "steel and business" today as he and his son made a final push to sway voters in a special election for a Pennsylvania House seat that will reverberate nationally.
He said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that Trump believes in freedom of the press and democracy and that there were "a lot of amusing moments" at the rally. "Otherwise they're going to take away your taxes, your tax cuts, they're going to take away your Second Amendment rights".
The new map splits most of the current 18th Congressional District between the new heavily Republican 14th District and a more competitive 17th Congressional District. "Lamb seems to have connected with them".
"This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots", Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
That's not a winning formula for a Democrat running in a deep-blue state like MA or California. In 2014 and 2016, Murphy didn't even face a Democratic challenger. And although many would point to it as a signal of a trend, like many House races it is likely to turn on candidate personalities and ground efforts to turn on voters, as opposed to being a national litmus test.
"I was really down after the presidential election, but Conor has me totally enthusiastic again", said Patricia Bancroft, 62, as she took a break from working the phones at Lamb's Allegheny County field office Monday afternoon. Republicans notched several wins in the first half of 2017, but that momentum was stopped with Democratic victories in Virginia and Alabama at the end of the year.
Trump has already visited the district twice to try to buoy Republican Rick Saccone. According to a Sunday night report from Jonathan Swan of Axios, Trump has been "privately" trashing Saccone. Tuesday's results will provide a bit of clarity as both parties prepare for the midterms. It raises the question: WIll Trump be an asset for Republicans on the campaign trail, or something of a liability?